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Cite as
Shupova, T., V. Tytar. 2022. Long-term monitoring of the European roller (Coracias garrulus)
in Ukraine: is climate behind the changes? GEO&BIO,
23: 154–171. [In English]
Long-term monitoring of
the European roller (Coracias garrulus)
in Ukraine:
is climate behind the changes?
doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/gb2313
Tetiana
Shupova1*
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2829-8633
Volodymyr
Tytar2
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0864-2548
1
Institute of Evolutionary Ecology, NAS of
Ukraine (Kyiv,
Ukraine)
2 I. I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology, NAS of Ukraine (Kyiv, Ukraine)
pdf: gb2313-shupova.pdf
Abstract
The European range of the roller was formerly more extensive, but since
the 1980s there has been a long-term decline in numbers and in range,
particularly towards the north, including much of north-western Ukraine. Our
specific goals were to reconstruct the environmentally suitable range of the
species in Ukraine before the 1980s, gain better knowledge on its requirements,
compare the past and current suitable areas, infer the regional and
environmental variables that best explain its occurrence, and quantify the
overall range change in the country. For these purposes we created a database
consisting of 584 findings made in Ukraine, based on a lengthy record of
occurrences extending back to 1851: 203 for the period prior to 1980, 91 for
records made between 1985 and 2009, and 290 records made between 2010 and 2020.
We employed a species distribution modelling (SDM) approach to hindcast changes
in the suitable range of the roller during historical times across Ukraine and
to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for the
species under current climate and a set of factors that were hypothesised to be
of importance to roller presence and securing a sufficient food base. SDMs were
created for three time intervals (before 1980, 1985–2009, 2010–2020) using
corresponding climate data. SDMs show a decline of suitable for rollers areas
in the country from around 86 to 44%. Several factors, including land cover and
land use, human population density etc. that could have contributed to the
decline of the species in Ukraine, were considered. For example, the loss of
area of ‘short vegetation’ appears detrimental, although recent gains in this
respect have favoured the bird in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and around,
where Landsat images show the change from a previously vibrant agricultural and
forestry economy, when crops have been replaced by grasslands. Threats posed to
the roller by habitat and land use change are also likely to be compounded by
the effects of global climate change. In summary, we suggest climate change, in
particular velocity, have been responsible for shaping the contemporary home
range of the European roller in Ukraine and perhaps beyond.
Key
word
Coracias
garrulus, species distribution modelling, ecological niche,
climate change, velocity of climate change.
Correspondence to
Volodymyr Tytar; I. I. Schmalhausen Institute of
Zoology, NAS of Ukraine; 15 Bohdan Khmelnytsky Street, Kyiv, 01601 Ukraine; Email:
vtytar@gmail.com.
Article info
Submitted: 27.11.2022.
Accepted: 30.12.2022.
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