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Determination of factors of maximum influence on the
occurrence of fires in conditions of limited a priori information in the war zone in the east of Ukraine
The
expediency of using the inverted Floyd–Warshall algorithm for a deeper study of
factors of maximum influence on the occurrence and development of fires in the
war zones of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts is shown. It relates to the fact that
fire is one of the important parameters of the monitoring system that affects
the ecological situation in the region. However, in the absence of a priori information about fires and
hostilities, the formation of a set of factors influencing the occurrence and
development of fires in the region is a laborious process. The primary
assessment of a priori information
allows generalising and averaging the factors that influence the occurrence of
fires in these regions. The inverted Floyd–Warshall algorithm is a simple
algorithm to implement, although to eliminate errors in mathematical
calculations and to form adjacency matrices, a program code was developed in
the Python programming language. Using the built-in visualisation software
tools, a weighted oriented graph of factors influencing fires was built; the
weights of these factors, determined at the initial stage, are also indicated
on the edges of the graph. An adjacency matrix has been compiled, which
contains information about the presence or absence of links between graph
vertices. The factors of maximum influence on the occurrence and development of
fires in Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts are determined, considering the specifics
of the area and the results of hostilities. The results of the algorithm
confirmed that hostilities create a fire hazard situation in the region. Due to
the lack of a complete set of data, it becomes almost impossible to obtain
results of mathematical calculations that are more accurate, since open-source
data cannot provide errorless data on hostilities. For the same reason, the
study area is not divided into separate segments in order to obtain more
accurate results of mathematical calculations for each segment. Despite this,
the software implementation of the inverted Floyd–Warshall algorithm is a
universal method for solving the problem of finding and selecting factors of
maximum and minimum influence on the occurrence of fires in environmental
monitoring issues.
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